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Why NH’s 2016 primary is unpredictable

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According to a recent study from the University of New Hampshire, the state’s population has changed a lot since the 2008 and 2012 presidential primaries. 

New Hampshire has a population of roughly 1 million.  Since 2008, roughly 200,000 voters moved out of state and 200,000 new voters moved to New Hampshire.  Roughly 130,000 residents turned eighteen, while roughly 70,000 older voters died.  In total, roughly one third of New Hampshire’s current voters have never voted in New Hampshire’s presidential primary.

These new voters can make the primary difficult to predict.  If a polling organization only uses a list of registered voters from previous elections, the poll results will not take into account the very large number of new voters.

In addition, many voters wait until primary day to choose a candidate. 

“Between 25 and 45 percent of voters say they make up their minds the last three days of campaigning, and 15 to 20 percent say they make up their minds on Election Day,” political scientist Dante Scala told the Union Leader

That’s consistent with results from the most recent UNH poll, which showed only 39% of Republican voters have definitely chosen a candidate. 

Are you still choosing who to support in the primary?  Visit our 2016 New Hampshire Primary page to learn more about the candidates, including issue positions, campaign finance, and new poll results.

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